South Africa’s national general elections saw a decrease in turnout, the formation of a coalition government as a result of declining support for the former ruling party the ANC, and the emergence of the new populist leaning MK Party. Overall, South Africa’s democracy has entered a new era wherein the possibilities for a renewal of democracy are possible, but the precedent for coalition governance in the country points towards instability. As stated, what South Africa needs is for political parties to engage collaboratively, to put aside ideological differences with the aim of improving upon the socio-economic challenges that South Africans face.
What is revealed in a close analysis of the general election outcome, is that South Africa has not been entirely immune to the global populist wave. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its outright parliamentary majority which had made it the dominant party for close to thirty years. At least one of the parties which helped weaken it has espoused policy projections that ideologically marries a populist outlook to African ethno-nationalism, whilst other parties have leaned into an anti-immigrant sentiment that has been globally on the rise and has been a feature of tensions in South Africa for close to a decade.
The general elections were held in May 2024, and the outcome brought a marked historic change for the country, which is now entering into its first national coalition government. Despite concerns around the rise of populism and disillusionment with democracy, this young democracy seems to be testing its capability to hold its lawmakers to account for their failures to deliver on their mandate. The question is what does a coalition government could mean for the status of democracy in South Africa, what the challenges are that South Africa has faced that shaped the outcome of the 2024 elections, and the implications of this outcome going forward.
South Africa’s former ruling party the ANC emerged with 40 % of the vote, a decline of 17 % since the last general election in 2019. The ruling party had held a majority in South Africa’s representative parliamentary system for 20 years. The loss of an outright majority resulted in the formation of a coalition government, which is required when no party has an outright majority in the proportional representation system. The national coalition formed as an outcome of these elections has been termed a Government of National Unity (GNU). The three parties with the largest share of votes are the ANC at 40 %, the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 21 % and the recently formed Umkhonto Wesizwe party (MK Party) at 14 %.
Figure 1: election results
Source: Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)
In theory, there are benefits that make coalition governments preferable, such as the tendency towards “compromise-based policies” which can be more effective and longer lasting than policies favoured by a single party. Coalition governments can serve to strengthen democracy by improving the quality of democracy, making it more stable by being more inclusive of differing ideologies, values and ideas. What is meant by the quality of democracy is the extent to which a democratic system allows for the realisation of “democratic norms” such as participation of citizens, transparency and accountability, among others.
Coalition governments have a precedent in the South African political landscape, with coalitions having occurred on provincial, municipal and local levels of government to mixed results from as early on as 1994. A look at what has occurred at these levels of government might provide some insight as to what to expect on the national level, as well as serve as a case study for the benefits and drawbacks that coalition governments present. The Tshwane metropolitan municipality has been a coalition government since 2016, and in 2021 six parties- the DA, ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus (FFP), African Christian Democratic Party(ACDP), COPE and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) entered into coalition. The negotiations for the formation of this coalition were fraught with tension, with parties vying for the mayorship as part of the negotiations. This is indicative of the first challenge- parties placing priority on their own interests of obtaining influence, as opposed to selecting leadership based on the merit of the leaders.
In contrast to the stability and improved quality of the democratic process that coalitions have the potential to bring about, under the tenure of Tshwane’s coalition government, there has been a growth of instability. The municipality had cycled through five mayors in the period of just a few years. The reason cited for this, is a lack of cooperation between the parties who fall into costly disagreements. This lack of cooperation and resulting instability has had an adverse effect on service delivery, crime, economic development and policy implementation.
Considering the precedent set at other levels of government, then an effective national coalition will require a shift in political culture, not from voters alone, but from the political parties who they have placed in power. The relationship between parties will need to shift from battles over power to transparent reaching of common ground over shared principles in service of South Africans.
The issues South Africans cited as key in the years leading up to the elections according to Afrobarometer were unemployment, crime and security, housing, education, and corruption. Prior to the elections, voters expressed a growing dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s performance on these key issues. The decline in support for the ANC can be viewed as a reflection of this dissatisfaction, and of South Africans moving to prioritise the solving of these issues.
Figure 2: Most important problems
Source: Institute for Justice and Reconciliation
Along with a decline in support for the ruling party and a stagnation in support for the official opposition party, voter turnout had decreased from 66 % to 58 %. A lack of participation and overall dissatisfaction with democracy as a regime could pose an issue and for instance present a susceptibility to other regime types, and leave more unstable regime types to emerge. The rise of the arguably more populist leaning MK party could be explained by this disillusionment.
In terms of policy positions which shaped the electoral outcome, there has been a marked growth in the disparity between the policy positions taken by parties. Parties have appealed to highly emotive issues such as the death penalty, and have radically different approaches on how the key issues South Africans are concerned with should be addressed.
The question is if increasing inter-and intra-party factionalism could be what continues to dampen the ANC’s majority rule, their lack of delivery and good governance, or if this will instead be a healthy challenge that encourages the formerly dominant ruling party as well as opposition parties, to view their mandate South Africans as taking priority over the power struggles that often happens within coalition governments in South Africa.
Moving to a consideration of the rise of the MK Party, and what this reveals about the trajectory of South Africa’s democracy. The third biggest party as of the general elections, MK party, is led by former president Jacob Zuma, whose presidency had seen him embroiled in numerous scandals, namely his own corruption charges and his alleged involvement in State Capture. The fallout of state capture and Zuma’s presidency, was weakened democratic institutions and a decline in delivery from SOEs which suffered massive economic loss during this time.
The party formed in December 2023, just six months ahead of elections, founded by Jabulani Khumalo. Zuma then took charge, and launched the MK party as a vehicle through which to platform his own new party as a breakaway party from the ANC. This type of factionalism in South Africa is not new. Although it remains to be seen what its influence will be on the democratic dispensation, what it says about the current status of democracy is that factionalism has caused both intra-party and inter-party instability for the ANC.
The re-introduction of Zuma’s faction of the ANC has the potential to be a destabilising force given his allegedly historically successful role in weakening state institutions that are vital to the functioning of South Africa's democracy, institutions such as the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). However, if the statements of MK party members are indicative of what they may pursue in terms of policy, then it seems the party aims at weakening the powers of the judiciary, one important democratic institution, and have made mention of giving more power to traditional leaders .
These sentiments display an ethno-nationalist leaning in terms of ideology, and hand in hand with this sense of nationalism are the anti-immigration sentiments the party espoused as a party of its policy proposals in the MK party manifesto. It is not the only party to have used xenophobia and nationalism as a policy platform; the Patriotic Alliance who won 2 % of the vote, Action SA and even to some extent the ANC drew a hard line on immigration as an issue. Evidently, xenophobia and anxiety around immigration have been topical in South Africa. A strong sense of nationalism to the exclusion of foreign nationals is a key feature of populist movements and governments around the world. Purporting to challenge elites and presenting the establishment as being somehow oppressive is another key feature of populism, one which the MK party have.
However, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which is also considered by political scholars to lean into populist politics, saw a minor decline in support of around 1% . Possible reasons for their decline are the divisive image of leader Julius Malema and its members being implicated in the type of corruption allegations that the ANC had faced in the form of the VBS bank scandal which alleges that EFF leaders were involved in corruption. It remains to be seen whether the emergence of the MK Party marks South Africa’s joining of the global trend towards a growth in populism.
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