Mozambique Forms Its Government, but Question of Geopolitical Risks Still Remains Unanswered

 

Mozambique Forms Its Government, but Question of Geopolitical Risks Still Remains Unanswered

by Ocean Postman

This past year was a major election year during which the democratic system was tested in many countries around the world. Mozambique’s general elections, held on October 9, were found to have been irregular, but the result was still accepted by the Mozambique Constitutional Council, which declared the results legitimate. This is despite recent anti-government protests by Mozambicans. The ruling party, the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo) thus remains in power, as they have for the past 50 years. In a country marked by a recent history of civil war, the threat of political violence was realized in these most recent elections which produced deadly protests. The fairness of the elections remains in dispute, whilst the previously held 2019 general election set a precedent as the least fair elections since 1994. 

Mozambique remains a resource rich economy, and vital trading partner not only to its Southern African neighbours but globally as well. The country has an export market in goods and services such as transportation, aluminium and coal. The political situation has had destabilising effects on the economy. Damages incurred by businesses and to infrastructure are currently estimated at millions of dollars. The fact that the opposition leader Venancio Mondlane who was previously in self-imposed exile returned to the country has now returned to Mozambique, and that the ruling party has now included leaders from the opposition in the formation of their government, could trigger fresh anti-government protests and boycotts. The government’s choice to go ahead and formally swear in their parliament despite the people of Mozambique risking their lives to voice their opposition to the results, could bring into question the legitimacy of this newly formed government, and undermine the democratic process itself in the eyes of citizens. 

In previous instances of violence such as protests which erupted post the local level elections in 2023, the government did not hesitate to turn to the use of forceful violence to silence any dissent, and this constant threat of violence could be said to diminish the quality of democracy in the country. This political instability could have knock-on implications for businesses operating in Mozambique’s largest sectors.

There is still imminent regional risk posed by the instability and violence in Mozambique should a resolution not be found. For now, protests have quelled due in part to the hurricane weather events. But this could be a temporary relief, as the threat of political violence has been a sporadic feature of the country’s political landscape. This brings into question the relatively distant position taken by key regional organisations such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC). In contrast to the regional organisation’s deployment of security forces to combat terrorism and insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province from 2021 to their withdrawal in July 2024, the SADC has yet to put forward any proposal for military intervention or mediation. 

A cynical view is that perhaps the resource rich province was protected for fear of extremists appropriating the infrastructure, to the benefit of private oil companies, be they domestic or multinational; whereas the controversial election result impacts the political outcomes for ordinary Mozambicans, who according to analysts, face concerns such as protection of social freedoms, the lack of economic opportunity, youth unemployment and instances of extremist violence.

Considering the prominent role that South Africa plays as fellow SADC partner and as one of the stronger economies and arguably democracies on the continent, the potential mediation role that South South Africa could play bilaterally must be strongly examined. Already, South Africa’s SANDF was responsible for the funding of the SADC joint anti-insurgency operation that took place in 2021. However, recent anti-immigrant rhetoric espoused by various political parties during South Africa’s own general election, as well as recent policy decisions on foreign national migrant workers, point away from a pan-Africanist ideology, leaving the question open as to what role South Africa will play in any future mediation processes.